I am convinced that life in general and politics in particular are like chaos theory. Anything you can think of is possible. That is scary to believe, but I know it to be true.
There have been two world wars, but not one for six decades. That’s because of the invention of nuclear weapons, something so terrifying that even despots have declined to use them. We did came close in 1962. But we have had smaller wars of course and the results have been poor to awful. Korea at least saved the South but Vietnam was a complete failure. The second Iraq war was also. Even Afghanistan became a continuing black hole for blood and treasure despite attaining the goal of killing Osama bin Laden. Why do we keep doing this?
Some people think that JFK would have withdrawn from Vietnam, but we will never know. He did start the thing by sending 16,000 combat troops there. George H. W. Bush showed restraint in the first Iraq war, only to see his son decline to do so thereafter, disastrously. President Obama, to his credit, has actually reduced our involvement in war. He withdrew from Iraq and reduced involvement in Afghanistan to a mostly-advisory role.
History proves that the temptation to use military force is almost irresistible. I think it is so because war-fighting is the one option available to a president which shows decisiveness and gets quick action. Very satisfying at first. Everything else creates controversy and rebuttal. The danger is made even greater by the refusal of every Congress for six decades to uphold its obligation to declare war before engaging.
In view of this history, we should all reflect in this context, I submit, whether we want to elect an amateur or a professional, experienced politician as commander in chief. Especially since the amateur has zero experience in both government and military service. Zero. Could Donald Trump actually win the presidency? The polls say he very well could. Even more persuasively, one professional observer gives five reasons why he probably will win.